Growth in US spending on Visa and Mastercard, split into growth in the consumer spending cards can capture (Purchase PCE) and the rise in card penetration of that spending. Quarterly, from network filings and BEA national accounts.
Volume YoY = Purchase PCE growth + penetration. Bars split the volume growth so the two parts add up exactly (log shares); the penetration figure in the tables is the exact residual, (1 + volume) ÷ (1 + PCE) − 1.
Volume YoY: each network's reported YoY, combined by implied year-ago volume (the Network index). PCE: BEA nominal, SAAR, latest vintage. Ratio: trailing-4Q network volume ÷ average SAAR Purchase PCE of the same 4 quarters; it is not a share (see notes). Shaded rows: 2020–21, distorted by COVID.
The identity. Network volume growth = growth in the spending cards can capture × growth in the share they capture: (1 + volume YoY) = (1 + Purchase PCE YoY) × (1 + penetration). Penetration is the residual, so anything in the volume that is not in the base ends up in it.
Purchase PCE is PCE less spending that is imputed (e.g. owner-occupied rent) or not paid by the consumer (e.g. employer-funded health care). It is the definition Visa uses to size its "Addressable Consumer Spend" (Visa Investor Day, 20 Feb 2025, slide 51). Here that means PCE less imputed owner rent, farm dwellings, financial services furnished without payment, nonprofits' own consumption (NPISH), and all of health care. BEA does not split health care into out-of-pocket and insurer-paid, so dropping all of it understates the base by the out-of-pocket share (estimate). Rent, utilities, autos and insurance stay in, so penetration into bill pay shows up as penetration. About 65% of PCE.
Visa put the gap between its US consumer payments volume growth and US addressable consumer spend growth at 5 ppts on average over CY2018–23 (Investor Day 2025, slide 33). Visa's penetration term here, on Purchase PCE, averages +4.4 pts over 2019–23. Visa's figure uses consumer volume only and its own estimate of the base, so the match is approximate.
| Series | Source | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Visa | US payments volume, Visa Operational Performance Data (Visa IR) | Reported YoY, fiscal quarters mapped to calendar quarters |
| Mastercard | US purchase volume, 8-K earnings releases (Mastercard IR) | Reported YoY, calendar quarters |
| Purchase PCE | BEA National Income and Product Accounts, Tables 2.3.5 and 2.4.5 (BEA) | Nominal, seasonally adjusted annual rate, latest vintage |