How the gap between today's mortgage rate and the rate homeowners already hold drives cash-out refinancing, HELOC originations and home equity extraction, with the FHFA breakdown of every outstanding mortgage by interest rate. Quarterly, through 2026Q2.
30-year mortgage rate vs the average rate on outstanding mortgages
Percent, quarterly. The gap between the lines is the lock-in the model uses as its driver.
HELOC originations proxy (est.), trailing four quarters
$bn of new credit limits, an Ottavi estimate built from NY Fed limits and HMDA, not a reported figure.
Everything here is historical data or an Ottavi estimate built from it, not a forecast of any company or of the market. See Data & method for definitions and limits.
Outstanding mortgages by interest rate
Latest distribution
Average rate on outstanding mortgages vs the 30-year rate
Percent. Averages weighted by loans and by unpaid balance.
Average loan balance
$ thousand per loan, unpaid balance divided by loans. FHFA publishes totals, not balance buckets.
Average monthly payment
Average monthly payment, $, loan-weighted.
Pending home sales vs change in the 30-year mortgage rate
HELOC originations proxy (est.), trailing four quarters
$bn of new credit limits, an Ottavi estimate built from NY Fed limits and HMDA, not a reported figure.
Cash-out refinance originations (est.)
$bn per quarter: FHFA NMDB originations times the cash-out share.
HELOC share of equity-secured credit (est.)
Share of (HELOC + cash-out), trailing four quarters, %.
Tappable home equity
$tn, equity available while keeping 20% of home value (Z.1).
HELOC credit limits and drawn balances
$bn on the left axis; drawn balances as a percent of tappable home equity on the right axis.
HELOC balances 90+ days past due
Percent of balances (NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel).
Flow of HELOC balances into 90+ days past due
Percent, annualized.
Delinquency is shown as data. The model carries a credit-supply overlay (unemployment above the latest level shrinks HELOC volume); it is a judgment call, listed in Data & method.